The Federal Reserve in 2022
Will the Bark be worse than the Bite? This is the question that I keep asking myself. Over the past few weeks, the bond market experienced one of the largest declines since 1980. For the first quarter of the year, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index declined by almost 6%. That loss of value includes earned […]
Being Disciplined Matters
(Especially when the ice looks thin) Through the end of October, our average return since the beginning of the year for most clients is approaching 20%. Despite those gains, this year has been challenging at times for disciplined investors like us. Our investment strategy has evolved over the past 25 years, but the core objectives […]
An Abundance of Uncertainty
Over the past four months, a tremendous amount of uncertainty has returned to our lives. The nightly news is filled with unpleasant—and at times deeply unsettling—footage. The Delta variant of COVID-19 has strained hospitals, with many states once again near or at full capacity in their intensive care units. Over the past thirty days, events […]
Staying Disciplined and Optimistic
The first quarter of 2021 has been a pleasant and largely uneventful period for our portfolios. That is not to say that markets moved straight up or that we have no areas of concern, but rather that this quarter felt far less frenetic than what we had grown accustomed to over the past year. I’m […]
Bidding Adieu to 2020
I was reading a speech given by Charlie Munger a few months ago. One of the themes in his speech was that a diligent and observant investor had likely seen it all after three decades of market experience. My 25th anniversary in the industry is coming up in March. Over my career, I experienced the […]
A Moment to Reflect & Reasses
It is a gross understatement to say that 2020 has been a bizarre and historically unprecedented year. Many of us have moments in time that stand out, such as where you were when President Kennedy was shot, or when the Challenger exploded, or that Tuesday morning when planes flew into the World Trade Center. This […]
Market Update: The Dawn Will Come
The coronavirus pandemic continues to intensify, as a world that appeared mostly unconcerned just eight weeks ago has now gone into a full-blown meltdown. The best visual for this crisis in economic terms might be a medically induced coma. Governments in Europe and the U.S., following the examples of China and Japan, have enacted historic […]
Oeconomia Interrupit: The Economy Interrupted
The title is Latin for economy interrupted. Given the absolute chaos and panic of the past three weeks, the title seems apropos. Before the Great Depression, a stock market decline was generally described as a “panic” as opposed to the modern phrase “bear market.” I think the word panic is a better description of the […]